On June 19, the spot steel market was mainly stable, and the main varieties in the futures market rose and fell, among which rebar and hot-rolled coil rose by 0.13%, iron ore rose by 0.43%, and coke fell by about 0.12%. At present, steel inventories continue to be reduced, but steel mills are profitable, steel production has increased, market sentiment remains cautious, and steel futures fluctuate in a narrow range. It is expected that steel prices will continue to operate under pressure today. 01#
The large increase in billet exports and the reduction in heavy rebar production are positive for rebar, and production may show a tortuous decline. At present, even if the off-season accumulates inventory, the accumulation speed and accumulation cycle will be slow and short. If the inventory concentration increases, the price uniformity will increase for the market, and strong price control ability will naturally occur. Low inventory and low supply will definitely provide strong support for the lower edge of the price. The lower edge of the price should not be set too low during the off-season.
The total social inventory of construction steel in the southwest region continued to fluctuate and reduce, but the decline narrowed. On the demand side, affected by high temperatures, rainy weather and the traditional off-season, the enthusiasm of terminal purchases has weakened, resulting in a slowdown in inventory liquidation. On the supply side, steel mill output has declined due to shrinking profits and weakening demand expectations, and the decline in building materials output has been significant, providing some support for inventory.
Entering June, the seasonal demand for terminal steel products is weak, and the black industrial chain is under pressure as a whole. Due to the loose supply, the price of pit-mouth coking coal continues to fall. Although the price of coke has fallen in resonance, coke companies are still profitable. As the blast furnace operation of steel mills declines, steel mills will continue to suppress coke prices to make profits. As of June 18, the mainstream transaction price of Shanxi quasi-first-grade dry-quenched metallurgical coke was 1245-1315 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and a cumulative decrease of 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.63%. Recently, steel mills have expected to start the fourth round of price increases and decreases for coke, with an estimated range of 50-55 yuan/ton. In the later period, with the increase in production cuts at pit-mouth coal mines, coking coal prices show signs of gradually stabilizing. Recently, due to environmental protection, shipment pressure and profit shrinkage, coking plants have also seen an increase in production cuts. Under the trend of supply contraction, the loose supply and demand situation of coke will be controlled. It is expected that after the fourth round of price cuts, the coke market may have a chance to enter a game.
